Russia, Ukraine and Tanks: How world is moving towards a blunder

6th Edition

After intense pressure, Germany has announced to supply Leopard 2 tanks followed by US president Biden announcing supply of Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Some believe the move was necessary for deterring Russia from spring escalation and some believe the focus should have been more on diplomacy. I have a firm stand on the latter belief.

There are various speculations if the decision can impact the battle in Ukraine’s favor. The type and strength of the tank is one thing and to train the soldiers making them capable enough to operate it is another. It may take a long time before Ukraine is capable to deploy it in the front line due to the same. Furthermore, there remains doubt whether Abrams can be sent to the Ukraine in time or it was just a political cover for the Germany to send the tanks. Even if all the process are in time, question still remains if it can be game changer in the frontline.

However, there is no doubt that the move will be now projected as a direct escalation from NATO. War is gradually beginning to extend beyond the border of Ukraine. After 1 years of the war, there is no sign for de-escalation rather danger is rising to new heights. Many political commentators are concerned about spring offensive but what I am more concerned about is no sign of diplomatic efforts. Today’s political leadership is just building a narrative that one is wrong and should be punished irrespective of the consequences faced by the people in bottom line of food chain.

The reality we need to accept today is the strength and determination of Russian leadership. Don’t get me wrong here, I am not trying to defend anyone but trying to reflect the truth. Some 100 tanks can’t roll over the frontline and end the war rather it will escalate the war more. Furthermore, it will give reason for Putin to frame the war as “Russia vs West”.

Today war is still manageable but the reality in the ground is beginning to change with massive aid from the West. Russia is losing ground and Putin is in scarcity of options. But the war is far from over and tanks will not end it. Obviously, tanks will reduce the options of Putin furthermore and it is not good scenario like you believe it to be. Here, we need to be clear of one thing; Regime change in Russia is not happening. With Putin in power there is no chance that war will end until he can show some victories to his public and that is not happening in the ground. Slowly but definitely Russia is inching towards use of weapons of mass destruction.

Politics is all about the perception. Only thing that can end this war is a win and win scenario where both sides can show some victories to the public, and it is achieved from diplomacy rather than rolling the tanks and advance weaponry. If we look back in history, we have to go as far as second world war to see an end of major war by means of brute force. All the other major wars after second world war have ended in some forms of compromises. What makes this war more dangerous is the rigid nature of leadership and negligence towards diplomatic means. Leadership is just trying to have an all-out victory.

The negotiation table may be somewhat favorable to one and unfair to another but it is politics and we know it is not fair. To change the scenario; at first, we have to sit in that negotiation table. During this war we also noticed the paralysis in UN. It is irony that one of the five permanent members of an organization responsible for establishing peace; is the one that initiate the war. In my opinion, UN should have a machinery to punish the permanent members if they ever commit such peace disturbing acts. UN should have been a platform for these negotiation talks but inability of UN to act is taking life of people and raising serious credibility questions towards UN.

Some Political analysts are saying tanks are sent to turn the table in Ukraine’s favor during the negotiation but for that we have to sit in one. Today it is tank, tomorrow it will be fighter jet, then it will be army personnel, furthermore a nuclear weapon then who knows what will be next…… Only slim chance to end the conflict is Diplomacy